If you follow SENKO Group Holdings, you may be wondering if now is the time to jump in or take some chips off the table. The stock has seen strong growth lately, up 41.0% year to date and an impressive 80.0% over the past 12 months. Even over three years and five years, we are talking about gains of 136.6% and 151.6% respectively. It’s the kind of performance that turns heads and makes people wonder, “Am I missing something or is this show already overcooked?”
A quick look at the past month shows that the momentum hasn’t completely faded, with an increase of 4.5%, including 3.3% in the last week alone. Some of this strength can be attributed to broader interest in the logistics sector and optimism about supply chain resilience. These factors have put companies like SENKO Group Holdings on investors’ radars. As the appetite for risk has increased, so has confidence in companies that stand to benefit from changes in global trade flows.
But here’s where it gets interesting from a value perspective: A recent check using six different undervaluation metrics gives SENKO Group Holdings a valuation score of 0. This means the stock doesn’t register as undervalued on any of the standard metrics used in this review. As tempting as performance-driven scenarios may be, it’s crucial to consider how we assess whether stocks are attractively valued based on fundamentals.
Next, I’ll introduce you to the different assessment methods used and share a more nuanced approach to assessment that could give you a better advantage than traditional controls. Let’s break it down.
SENKO Group Holdings scores just 0/6 in our valuation checks. Find out what other red flags we found in the full assessment breakdown.
The discounted cash flow (DCF) model estimates the intrinsic value of a company by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them to their current value. This approach helps investors understand whether a stock’s current price reflects its ability to generate cash in the future.
For SENKO Group Holdings, trailing twelve months free cash flow (FCF) is negative ¥5.6 billion, primarily reflecting recent capital expenditures and operating cash flows. Looking ahead, analysts forecast significant recovery and growth, with FCF estimated at 19.8 billion yen by the end of fiscal 2030. Although analysts only provide detailed forecasts for the first five years, additional years are extrapolated based on historical trends and analyst expectations. These projections indicate consistent increases from year to year.
According to the DCF model, the calculated intrinsic value of SENKO Group Holdings shares is ¥1,869. Relative to its current market price, this implies that the stock is overvalued by approximately 13.0% based on these cash flow projections.
The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is widely considered a reliable measure for evaluating profitable companies because it relates the company’s stock price to its actual earnings. This makes the PE ratio particularly useful for established companies like SENKO Group Holdings, where consistent profitability helps anchor valuations on actual performance rather than projections.
What is considered a “normal” or “fair” PE ratio depends on growth and risk expectations. Typically, higher growth or lower risk leads to higher PE, while the opposite lowers it. SENKO Group Holdings is currently trading at a PE ratio of 19.6x, putting it slightly above the logistics industry average of 16.3x and in line with its peer group, which averages 19.3x. This suggests that the market is optimistic about SENKO’s growth relative to the broader sector, but the valuations are not far ahead of similar companies.
That’s where Simply Wall St’s “Fair Ratio” comes in. Unlike blunt comparisons made to industry averages or peers, the Fair Ratio is a tailored benchmark that weighs earnings growth, industry, profit margins, market capitalization and company risks. For SENKO Group Holdings, the fair ratio is 16.3x, which is almost in line with the industry average. The actual PE ratio of 19.6x is slightly higher, but not radically irrelevant given the company’s fundamentals. With a difference of only 3.3x, a deviation of less than 0.10, SENKO appears to be rated about right on this metric.
Earlier, we discussed a more insightful way to assess valuation, and that’s where stories come in. Stories are a simple but powerful concept that allows you to connect your personal view of SENKO Group Holdings with real financial forecasts and valuations. Instead of relying solely on generic numbers, you can create your own story for a company by describing your assumptions about its fair value, future revenues, earnings, and profit margins, and see exactly how those opinions translate into the company’s estimated value.
Stories bridge the gap between a company’s story, your expectations, and a calculation of fair value. With the Simply Wall St platform, millions of investors access Narratives directly from the Community page, making it easy for everyone to create, share and compare insights. Stories also allow you to make timely buying or selling decisions by clearly showing how your fair value compares to the current price, and they are automatically updated when new information such as earnings reports or news is released.
For example, looking at SENKO Group Holdings, one investor’s narrative might see strong growth in logistics and set a high fair value, while another expects margin compression and opts for a much lower target. Both viewpoints can be tracked and compared in real time with Narratives.
TSE: 9069 September 2025 Earnings and Revenue History
This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to constitute financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell shares and does not take into account your objectives or your financial situation. Our goal is to provide you with targeted, long-term analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
