Every year, leading investors share their expectations for the future of the market: some predict a resumption of IPOs, others – an active adoption of AI and its impact on startups. This year, TechCrunch gathered the views of five investors from different regions to identify 2026 trends in the world of startups and venture capital.
Below are key insights and findings on how startup success will be measured and where investors will direct their capital in the year ahead.
What founders need to attract investment in 2026 compared to the previous year
Funding in 2025 requires a shift from “vision” to “proven viability”. Previously, capital was the main advantage; Today, investors are wary of “pilot hell,” when companies test AI solutions without the need to buy urgently. In 2026, the bar is high. Founders need to show venture capitalists that they not only have proof of demand; they need a distribution advantage. Investors are digging deeper into repeatable sales drivers, their own processes, and deep domain expertise that can withstand the “race for capital.” VC no longer cares who entered the market first with a flashy demo. They want to know who is building something that can last, earn trust, and scale over the long term.
We believe the funding markets will still be open to the best founders, but the bar will be set higher. In the early stages, especially in AI-based software, I expect fewer mega-rounds due to fierce competition and capital already spread across many categories. Founders should stand out with unique distribution channels or perspectives, not just huge market potential and solid experience. Investment defenses have already formed around oversaturated sectors. At the Series A and B stages, the first few rounds will require clear evidence of exponential momentum. The market has now adapted to these expectations with a greater emphasis on profit sustainability.
Bigger, faster, better: bigger TAM, faster growth, better unit economics. We made 50 investments last year in 25 countries, and we expect an even more active year, which means founders are now coming together at different stages and in different markets. The strongest founders not only show off what they’ve built, but also help investors understand where the company will go. Real revenue and real customers still matter, but they are not enough on their own. An investor always asks himself: where is the company today and where could it be in 12, 18 or 24 months? The founders who raise capital are the ones who answer this question clearly and convincingly.
Many founders easily find their way to new solutions using genAI’s extremely advanced coding tools. Yet these tools level the playing field and competition has become even more intense. Founders who want to launch a large-scale business need to: 1) truly solve big problems, not something easily “tweaked” in code; 2) build in the problem space where they have a unique position to win; 3) bring something unique and difficult to reproduce. It could be a contrarian approach with unique insights, access to private data, deep networks or a technological edge. Such concepts are not new, but the stakes and expectations are higher than ever.
For founders selling to companies, the world has become more aware of the value that AI can deliver, and therefore proof – demonstrating concrete ROI – will become even more important to investors. Founders who can demonstrate that their products deliver significantly greater value have the best chance of raising capital.
In which areas do you plan to invest and why?
As a fund, we remain sector-neutral generalists, but we are constantly refining our focus. Today we are looking for “high context founders”. In a world where AI has made coding more accessible, the benefit now lies in real hands-on experience. We want to invest in a founder who has worked for many years in a complex industry and has unique expertise that AI can amplify. The ideal investment is a combination of deep expertise and a distribution advantage from day one, meaning the founders already know exactly who will buy from them.
We are particularly interested in “dormant” or legacy sectors outside of the main technology scene, where AI can drive radical ROI and drive adoption. These markets are less competitive and present a level of complexity often characteristic of atypical sectors. 2026 will be a good year for infrastructure support for foundational models and cutting-edge research, such as embodied AI and global models. Health remains a priority due to clear buyer demand; we focus on data storage systems and platforms, not standalone solutions.
Outside of the United States, relatively high risk-adjusted returns typically come from Poland, Turkey, and Greece. By investing in 25 countries in one year, we stop looking at venture capital as something that happens in one place and we get a global view. More than 20 years ago, around 90% of venture capital investments were directed to the United States; that has changed. Today, more than half of venture capital investments and the majority of unicorns in the world are outside the United States. We’re seeing founders from Latin America, Africa, the Middle East and South Asia building companies on a global scale – often targeting large markets from the start.
I’m particularly interested in founders who are solving problems at scale and using technology to move into the future. I’m extremely uninterested in startups that automate workflows for the benefit of specific verticals. What matters most to me are the global platform shifts that will define the era of technological and societal development.
We have seen the massive impact of AI software. The next frontier is the intersection with hardware. Much of the world’s GDP is concentrated in manufacturing, and pure software is not fully unlocking the growth potential.
How do you assess the 2026 venture capital market as a fund manager?
We’re launching what I call a venture market cleanup event, and 2026 will separate stable platforms from ephemeral ones. The implications will affect fund managers I who have yet to find their footing, and active fund managers II who are experiencing DPI droughts starting in 2021. Traditional institutional pillars, notably university endowments, are effectively in repair mode. After a liquidity shortage, they turn to secondary markets, corrections and portfolio smoothing to preserve existing liabilities.
We believe the start of 2026 could bring breakthroughs to the market, but the emergence of significant trading volume will depend on investors’ willingness to back ambitious companies with a long-term roadmap. We remain cautious and focus on companies with real, sustainable revenue models and a clear path to scale.
The coming year is shaping up to be a time when AI-focused investors and startups will remain the center of attention. Investors are not only looking for “AI startups,” but also those that use AI to survive in large markets – with real-world use cases and potential to scale. Expect growing interest in more holistic and practical technology deployments across businesses.
We plan to maintain a high level of investor and startup interest in AI. However, in the medium term we will see a focus on more practical applications, a focus on demonstrating value and return on investment, and improving infrastructure to enable wider adoption of AI across all sectors.
AI will remain a hot topic barring serious catalysts, such as a sharp rise in energy costs or rising default rates, which could alter the availability of computing power.
What surprises could arise in 2026 in the world of venture capital and startups?
One of the most unexpected changes in 2026 will be the quiet end of the “ChatGPT-first” era in startups. Not because generative AI is losing value, but because there will no longer be a single model as a standard starting point. GPT will no longer always be better than search, image or video generation, which will fundamentally change product architectures. Savvy founders of 2026 are already moving toward a multi-model world, but now they’re focusing on specialization.
We expect to see an increase in the number of successful startups that scale with one or two rounds of funding. AI tools for coding are enabling many early-stage companies to achieve profitability without excessive risk. As LLMs are expected to be ubiquitous, companies will increasingly use smaller models, seeking greater explainability, lower costs and greater reliability. This could lead to more substantial use of small models, deterministic and hybrid global models or simulation-based modeling.
AI will remain a hot topic, but new needs will likely emerge, such as integrating AI into various service areas and reducing costs. In 2026, we will see more practical and deployed solutions, not just demonstrations.
Of course, we hope that interest will remain focused on practical applications of AI in business and in various sectors where the technology can actually reduce costs or speed up decision-making.
AI will remain a hot topic barring serious catalysts, such as a sharp rise in energy costs or rising default rates, which could alter the availability of computing power.
In summary, 2026 promises an overhaul of investment approaches, a greater emphasis on high-quality teams and scaling strategies, and adjustments around IPOs and public markets. The role of international markets is expanding and the demand for AI infrastructure and new development platforms is increasing, creating new opportunities for startups with a clear roadmap and for investors ready to support long-term projects.