Among startup investors, the dominant mantra has long been that the biggest returns go to those who are earliest in finding and funding the most promising founders.
It seems simple enough. But there’s a problem: what if many well-capitalized investors identified these same founders around the same time?
In this case, being early can still have advantages. However, it can also be very expensive.
This is a dynamic we see more at seed and Series A. The number of unusually large rounds at these stages has increased in recent quarters. 1this type of agreement being particularly important during the first weeks of this year.
As an illustration, we used Crunchbase data to count seed and Series A rounds of $100 million or more over the past few years.
As you can see, jumbo seed and Series A offerings have been around for years. Frequency increased around the 2021 market peak and then declined over the next two years. It started to resume again in 2024.
This year, these tours are making a particularly marked return. According to Crunchbase data, more than 40% of seed and Series A investments in 2026 reached $100 million or more. That’s surprisingly high, especially since mega-rounds at these stages haven’t been very big for most of the history of startup investing.
Although we are seeing giant funding rounds globally, they are more prevalent in US startups. According to Crunchbase data, more than half of all seed and series funding this year went to fundings of $100 million and above.
Big early bets
In a finding that will surprise no one, data shows that a preponderance of early-stage mega-rounds are aimed at AI startups.
This is clearly the case with this year’s biggest example, last week’s $480 million. startup financing For Humans andan AI lab that says it will apply the technology in a way that focuses “on people and their relationships with each other.” The company was founded in September by top researchers from Google, Anthropic, xAI, OpenAI And Meta.
This is also true for Recursive intelligencea frontier AI lab that announced Monday it had raised $300 million in a Series A round at a valuation of $4 billion. And for Merge laboratoriesA Sam Altman-founded startup working on brain-computer interfaces that integrate with advanced AI, which has reportedly locked in a $252 million funding round, with OpenAI as a major backer.
Another big fundraiser took place in Abu Dhabi Wrongan AI-powered Islamic digital banking platform. The startup secure $230 million in its first funding round this month, led by BlueFive Capital. Another, High-end AIan AI networking infrastructure startup, closed $200 million in Series A funding last week.
Below, we’ve put together a complete list of funding rounds of $100 million or more this year.
From quirky to skilled
The classic seed cycle, which usually runs into the single-digit millions, has of course not disappeared. For every supergiant seed transaction, there are dozens of smaller ones in a typical month.
Still, the stereotype of a seed round at this stage – a small, risky bet on an unproven founder – could use an update. Even as these deals continue, more of the funding appears to be going to highly established serial innovators and entrepreneurs.
Is this a positive or negative development? I suppose the case could be argued one way or another. Good or bad, though, it certainly gets more costly for those writing the checks.
Related Crunchbase query:
Illustration: Dom Guzman
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