Although 2025 was a crazy year, 2026 is shaping up to be an even more pivotal year for the supply chain, driven by the convergence of three key forces.
First, revolutionary advances in agentic AI are expected to reshape operations and decision-making.
Second, intensifying global uncertainty, including economic changes, geopolitical tensions and tariff fluctuations, will continue to test planning and resilience. The unexpected has become the norm, with businesses facing price fluctuations of 30-40%, putting a strain on their operations, especially for smaller businesses with less wiggle room.
Finally, increasing costs linked to climate change add another level of complexity to supply chains around the world.
These forces are deeply interconnected. By analogy, this reminds me of two trees that I knew in the Bahamas and which demonstrated mutualism. Poisoned wood, which causes a serious skin reaction, invariably grows next to a tree whose leaves provide the antidote. Similarly, agentic AI comes at a time when the risk of volatility and climate change requires an urgent counterbalance. It does this and more, going beyond simply addressing risk to delivering net positive, even transformational, benefits. Success in 2026 will favor those who recognize this interdependent mutualism and look to agentic AI as a counterforce.
While much of the attention last year focused on generating AI to do things better, in 2026 the focus will shift to agentic AI to do things completely differently. Both rely primarily on LLMs, but the goal-oriented nature of agentic AI, and its ability to orchestrate actions among dozens of sub-agents to solve complex problems, goes far beyond the capabilities of Gen AI and makes it transformative.
What does this mean for businesses and their supply chains? The impact on productivity will be pronounced. Agentic AI can fill talent gaps, enabling entry-level employees to achieve the same performance and results as veterans in functional tasks – a challenge that affects almost every organization.
It also upskills users so that even the most experienced professionals can perform much more complex tasks, such as planning and execution in collaboration with lower-level partners throughout the value chain. This capability helps businesses better manage risks related to global uncertainty and climate disruption, address challenges in ways that were previously impossible, and gain a competitive advantage.
Most importantly, agentic AI transforms regular users into superusers by eliminating organizational silos and barriers, enabling tasks in the supply chain that were previously impossible. Properly applied, it is poised to redefine supply chain management and eliminate long-standing inefficiencies.
Businesses seeking competitive advantage should embrace agentic AI and prioritize data-powered use cases across the entire value chain, including ecosystem partners. After all, AI is only as good as the data behind it. More than 90% of supply chain disruptions that impact businesses occur outside of internal operations, deep within the supply chain. Access to this data in any agentic AI deployment is essential for making quality decisions, otherwise you will remain blind. This is especially important if you are on the path to automating decisions.
It is equally important to prioritize approaches that span multiple functional areas. While agentic AI, for example, in planning or logistics, is useful, the real value comes from agentic AI in planning. And logistics. Reducing barriers to cross-functional workflows and enabling faster, more efficient decision-making throughout the supply chain is where the magic of agentic AI truly shines.
Tariff fluctuations, evolving trade policies and geopolitical tensions will continue to disrupt supply chains. Additionally, fragile consumer confidence and inflationary pressures will worsen the unpredictability of supply and demand, putting businesses at risk.
Even as businesses and consumers experience tariff fatigue, the administration continues to use tariffs as its favored policy tool. The tricky part for CEOs is that changes in business policy are largely beyond their control, but the good news is that how a company responds to these changes is entirely up to them.
Businesses need to stay informed. Staying on top of changes in business policy and connecting it directly to planning and execution systems allows you to act quickly when opportunities or risks arise. Businesses that make smarter, faster decisions in the face of uncertainty can gain a real advantage over their competitors.
Access to real-time commercial and pricing data is essential. Policies can change monthly, weekly or even daily; far too quickly to manage with spreadsheets alone. Integrating this information into purchasing, manufacturing, distribution and demand planning ensures that decisions are accurate and timely. And when tariffs come into effect, having the right data at the right time can mean the difference between making or losing money on a product line or the business as a whole.
Climate disruptions generate operational and financial risks
Cyclones, wildfires, droughts, heatwaves and other extreme events will continue to disrupt production, agricultural yields, transportation and critical infrastructure at an increasing rate.
Climate has become a universal “cost tax,” leading to increased supply costs, inventory losses, damaged infrastructure, and increased logistics expenses. Reported damage from climate disruption today is about ten times what it was 25 years ago.
The real challenge for brand owners is that most of these climate disruptions affecting their business occur outside of internal operations, deep within sub-level supply or distribution networks. However, most companies’ processes and systems are inward-looking. This creates a blind spot when it comes to deep supply chain disruptions, with staff only discovering them when it is too late to take preventative action. This lack of visibility and control locks businesses into a cycle of costly and ineffective firefighting.
Businesses need to think bigger. While you can’t control weather events, you can control how you build resilience and respond to disruptions. Start by extending planning and execution beyond the four walls to gain sub-level visibility to understand risks, mitigate exposure, and better respond to disruptions.
Invest in multi-enterprise supply chain management designed for collaboration with ecosystem partners. By making connected decisions that reflect the realities of the end-to-end value chain, businesses become inherently more resilient in the face of unexpected disruptions.
Leverage agentic AI to gain a competitive advantage. Fill talent gaps, upskill users to make higher-quality functional decisions that integrate sub-level realities, and eliminate organizational and process barriers. Done right, it transforms cross-functional decision-making and strengthens your ability to manage climate risks proactively rather than reactively.
2026 will be a year of change, so buckle up. With uncertainty and climate risk intensifying and poised to upend supply chains in the new year, agentic AI has emerged as a powerful new tool to give businesses a way to not only weather headwinds, but also gain an advantage.
Consider it a match for the ages. On one side are the negative forces of uncertainty and disruption, which hit supply chains recklessly. On the other side is a new, positive agenting force to push them back and open the door to new levels of productivity. In 2026, companies that embrace agentic AI and act decisively will not only survive the chaos, but emerge stronger, ready to redefine what is possible in the supply chain.
John Lash is GVP of Strategy at e2opena company of the global WiseTech group.