American presidential administrations tend to have big impacts on technology across the world. We must therefore assume that when Donald Trump returns to the White House in January, his second administration will do the same. Maybe even more than usual, because it runs his office with people closely connected to the Heritage Foundation, the Washington, D.C.-based conservative think tank behind the project controversial 900 pages Leadership mandate (also known as Project 2025). The new administration will of course affect much more than technology and engineering, but here at IEEE Spectrumwe explored the likely impact of Trump’s second term on these sectors.
Read on to learn more or click to jump to a specific topic. This article will be updated as more information becomes available.
During Trump’s campaign, he pledged to cancel President Joe Biden’s 2023 agenda. decree on AIsaying in his platform that it “hinders innovation in AI and imposes radical left-wing ideas on the development of this technology”. Experts expect him to deliver on that promise, which could kill momentum on many regulatory fronts, such as combating AI-generated misinformation and protecting people from algorithmic discrimination.
However, part of the work planned by the decree has already been accomplished; overturning it would not undo the reporting or overturn decisions made by various cabinet secretaries, such as the Commerce Secretary’s creation of a AI Security Institute. Although Trump could order his new Commerce secretary to close the institute, some experts say it has enough bipartisan support to survive. “It develops standards and processes that promote trust and safety, which is important for professional users of AI systems, not just the public,” saysDoug Calidassenior vice president of government affairs at the advocacy group Americans for Responsible Innovation.
As for new initiatives, Trump is expected to encourage the use of AI for national security. It is also likely that, to stay ahead of China, it will expand export restrictions related to AI technology. Currently, American semiconductor companies cannot sell their most advanced chips to Chinese companies, but this rule contains a gaping loophole. loophole: Chinese companies only need to register with US-based companies. cloud computing services to carry out their calculations on cutting-edge equipment. Trump could close this gap by limiting the use of cloud computing by Chinese companies. It could even expand export controls to restrict Chinese companies’ access to financial markets. weight of foundation models-the numerical parameters which define how a machine learning the model does its job. —Eliza Strickland
Trump plans to impose high tariffs on imported goods, including 60% tariffs on products from China, 25% on those from Canada and Mexico, and general tariffs of 10 or 20% on all other imports. He is I committed to doing it on day one. of his administration, and once implemented, these tariffs would increase the prices of many consumer electronics. According to a report released by the Consumer Technology Association in late October, the tariffs could result in a 45 percent increase in the consumer price of laptops and tablets, as well as a 40 percent increase for video game consoles, 31 percent percent for monitors and 26 percent for smartphones. Collectively, U.S. purchasing power for consumer technologies could fall by $90 billion per year, according to the report. Tariffs imposed under the first Trump administration have continued under Biden.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration may take a less aggressive stance on regulating big tech. Under Biden, the Federal Trade Commission continued Amazon to maintain monopoly power and Meta for antitrust violations and worked to block mergers and acquisitions by big tech companies. Trump is expected to replace current FTC Chairwoman Lina Khan, although it remains unclear how the new administration — which presents itself as anti-regulation — will affect the scrutiny that big tech faces. Leaders of large companies, including Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, IntelAnd Qualcomm congratulated Trump on his election on social media, primarily congratulations issued.) —Gwendolyn Rak
Cryptocurrencies
On November 6, Trump’s election day, Bitcoin sautéed 9.5 percentclosing above US$75,000, a sign that the cryptocurrency world is expecting a boom under the next regime. Donald Trump presented himself as a pro-crypto candidate, promising to make America the “crypto capital of the planet” at a Bitcoin conference in July. If he keeps his promises, Trump could create a national government. bitcoin reserve by keeping the bitcoin seized by the US government. Trump also promised to remove Gary Gensler, chairman of the Securities and Exchanges Commission, who pushed to regulate most cryptocurrencies in the form of securities (like stocks and bonds), with increased government oversight.
Although Trump may not have the power to impeach him, Gensler will likely resign when a new administration is in place. He East Trump has the power to choose the new SEC chairman, who will likely be much more lenient on cryptocurrencies. The proof lies in Trump’s pro-crypto cabinet appointments: Howard Lutnick as Commerce Secretary, whose financial firm supervises assets stablecoin Tether; Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services, who said in a message that “Bitcoin is the currency of freedom”; and Tulsi Gabbard for director of national intelligence, who held stakes in two cryptocurrencies in 2018. As Trump said at that Bitcoin conference, “the rules will be written by people who love your industry, not hate your industry.” —Kohava Mendelsohn
Energy
Trump’s plans for the energy sector aim to establish U.S. “energy dominance,” primarily by boosting domestic oil and gas production and deregulating these sectors. For this, he selected an oil services executive Chris Wright to lead the U.S. Department of Energy. “On day one, I will approve new drilling, new pipelines, new refineries, new power plants, new reactors, and we will cut red tape,” Trump said. said in a campaign speech in Michigan in August.
Trump’s position on nuclear energyhowever, is less clear. His first administration provided billions in loan guarantees for the construction of the most recent Vogtle reactors in Georgia. But in a October interview with podcaster Joe RoganTrump said large-scale nuclear builds like Vogtle are “getting too big, too complex and too expensive.” Trump periodically shows support for the development of advanced nuclear technologies, in particular small modular reactors (SMR).
As for renewable energy, Trump plans to “end» federal incentives for them. He swore to gut the inflation reduction lawa flagship law of the Biden administration that invests in electric vehiclesbatteries, solar and wind energy, clean hydrogenand other clean energy and climate sectors. Trump trumpets a a particular disgust for offshore wind, which he says will end »day 1» of his next presidency.
The first time Trump ran for president, he pledged to preserve the coal industry, but this time he I rarely mentioned it. The production of electricity from coal has in constant decline since 2008despite Trump’s appointment of a former coal lobbyist to lead the Environmental Protection Agency. For his next EPA chief, Trump nominated a former New York representative Lee Zeldin– a piece that should be at the heart of Trump’s campaign promises for rapid deregulation. —Emilie Waltz
Transportation
The new administration hasn’t yet given many details on transportation, but Project 2025 has a lot to say on the subject. It recommends eliminating federal funding for public transit, including programs administered by the Federal Transportation Administration (ALE). This would have serious consequences for local public transport systems, e.g. Metropolitan Transportation Authority in New York could lose nearly 20 percent of its capital funding, which could lead to rate hikes, service reductions and project delays. Kevin De Gooddirector of infrastructure policy at Center for American Progresswarns that “removing capital or operating subsidies to public transport providers would very quickly lead to systems breakdown and loss of reliability.” DeGood also highlights risk for FTAs Capital investment grantswhich fund transit expansion projects such as rail and bus rapid transit. Without this support, public transit systems would struggle to meet the needs of a growing population.
The 2025 Project also proposes the subsidiarization of certain Federal Aviation Administration operates in a government-sponsored corporation. DeGood acknowledges that privatization can be effective if structured well, and he cautions against the assumption that privatization inherently leads to weaker control. “It is wrong to assume that government control means tight oversight and that privatization means lax oversight,” he says.
The Project 2025 deregulation agenda also includes repealing federal fuel economy standards and stopping initiatives such as Vision Zerowhich aims to reduce road deaths. Additionally, funding for programs intended to connect underserved communities to jobs and services would be reduced. Critics, including researchers from Berkeley’s Lawargue that these measures prioritize cost reduction over long-term resilience.
Trump also announced plans end the US$7,500 tax credit for the purchase of an electric vehicle. —Willie D. Jones
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